Changing the Guard is an ambitious book with the controversial theme that the British Army lost in Helmand and Basra, has failed to acknowledge that fact and consequently failed to address the reasons why. In particular, it points out that many commanders on whose watch things went badly wrong have been promoted. It notes that […]
The key number missing from the public discourse on Covid 19 was mortality rate. Only if that was high did Covid 19 Virus justify the response and until now the estimates have been flaky and unconvincing. Today, the UK Government advisors said it was 1%. Not sure how they got there but here is one […]
The European Union wisely chose near frictionless trade internally, the Single Market, but high barriers to global goods coming in, the Customs Union. Some argue that the United States grew its economy behind a similar barrier of tariffs in the 19th century. Indeed, most developed economies use tariffs and quotas to protect their domestic industries. […]
This is a positive case for a slow Brexit by proving the benefits before abandoning existing markets in the EU. The EU is in serious trouble mostly because the Euro is unsuitable for the range of economies that it ties together. This benefits Germany but penalises Spain/France/Italy/Greece. Also, the EU’s very high standards are incompatible […]
People never know they are experiencing a revolution until it is over. Revolutions are all ascribed to a date, 1789, 1917 etc, but most take longer. Revolutions are only selectively destructive and much survives. The one thing all revolutions destroy is trust. If the loss of trust is the first sign of a revolution we […]
It is odd how many people who rarely sell anything are so expert on trade policy. They lead you to think trade is created by regulations and not by a seller meeting a buyer’s need. Germany raised money to fund WW1 on the London market even after war had been declared in 1914. The market […]
The CApx article below is more elegant than my own attempts to explain that the structural problem of the EU is the Euro, not the odd country leaving. Germany, Ireland, Spain and Italy do not belong in the same currency and forcing them into one creates social tensions that lack a democratic outlet. It is […]
My ambitious goal is to write something everyone can agree on, by offering analysis and not advocacy. You judge. Things to Consider… These go unremarked but should probably be shaping the argument. UK does not need a trading agreement to increase trade with any particular country. Trade is made by markets of buyers and sellers […]
Many historians agree The Treaty of Versailles signed at the end of WW1 was largely the cause of WW2, which was the very thing it was intended to prevent. The divergent views of all-powerful leaders combined to make a treaty which had exactly the opposite effect to what they intended. A hundred years, later western […]
Summary Robots can line dance and cheap mini drones can do air displays, so either can be weaponised to overwhelm conventional weapon systems. Mass use of cheap automated fire units, and much else, are game changing military technologies and are already happening. Yet, defence procurement is stuck in the past, presided over by vested interests […]
Analyst not Advocate 