Brexit: Too soon to celebrate or despair.

Clearly, we are in an avoidable mess which is very annoying.  Half the population is very sad, although it is a different half to a week ago. Here are some reasons to postpone  despair or euphoria.

(Meanwhile, digital emotional messenger Bandoola hopes to create lots of new love which according to Quantitive Easing theorists will reduce emotional inflation and keep hate  rates low. I do hope so.)

On Brexit. This is not the whole story but we do not know…..

…….what deal the UK negotiating team will be told by parliament to try and secure. There is a broad range of possibilities.

…….if UK ends up with Brexit lite (Norway/ Switzerland) we are back were we started.

……if two party politics is over in UK leading to coalitions and a more middle path.

…….if the House of Commons, before or after an election, would  in fact trigger article 50. There remains a chance nothing happens.

……..if the EU will succumb to pressure from other members to change the free movement of people rules.

………if Greece will mange to make its July debt payment. Some say not. A currency crisis will weaken the EU negotiating hand leading to a looser Europe which might survive.

……….if Germans will support the summer round of Greek/Italy debt crisis. If not then again looser Europe.

………. the outcome of German elections in 2017 which might lead to a much less centrist EU.

………..if Scotland will even hold a new referendum. Nicola Sturgeon is being very careful to threaten but not to commit.  Excellent strategy for SNP.

FTSE 100 is where it was on Jun 10th albeit with a downwards trend. Might get worse but has not yet. Reporting more apocalyptic than the facts.

Market thinks lending to UK over a ten year term is less – yes less – risky than it was 3 days ago. Perhaps because UK has a bit more distance from an near certain Euro crisis.

A fall in the pound makes UK goods easier to sell. ERM exit was very positive for the UK economy.

The discontented who voted Brexit are now championed by internationalist leaning, main stream politicians (Johnson/Gove)  whereas before they were championed by UKIP who were neither. This should improve tone and language.

In summary, there are so many pathways forward and not all are worst case for Remainers.  One is that Europe reforms and dilutes free movement of people rules, an election is fought in UK which in effect rejects the outcome of the referendum. UK lives on in a reformed EU. Maybe.

Other Factors

UK government has not enforced the non-EU immigration policy it did control, perhaps because the enforcement of any immigration policy looks very very ugly. Deportations, confinement etc.  Very unpopular. So a change in policy is not really the issue, it is whether and how it is implemented. I suspect nothing changes.

UK is about to discover the EU is in fact a very effective bureaucracy. It is not logical to argue they are ineffective and then complain about the actions they enforce. Personally, I admire their ability to govern which is in contrast to Westminster.

The EU will likely offer superb admission terms to malcontent regions like Scotland. (Lots of laxity on entry criteria as when Greece was admitted).  It is their best negotiating tactic with the UK. It would be repeated elsewhere in Europe and would weaken the Euro.

Most international trade is driven by markets not tariffs and agreements. UK needs to make useful things at the right price and it does, although not enough.

Personal comments.

The company I founded relied heavily on specialist people for whom we obtained work permits once we had tried to hire someone locally.   Many permits were obtained even when immigration was tightly controlled in 2003 and onwards. Believe them or not, the stated policy of Vote Leave is, more or less, to take UK back to 2003- 2005. (The Tory Leave team does not include Farage who is not even in parliament).

Language inflames. Some has been too casual and this has caused offence which makes me very sad. Probably Vote Leave (which recall does not include Farage) understand these sensitivities which is why they, wisely, excluded him from their campaign and disavowed his poster. I personally hope that we can make people feel as welcome here as they felt a few months ago.  The success of London as a financial centres relies on the most talented people in the world wanting to work there.

I think it is fair to react to what people actually say and not to the motives attributed to them by third parties.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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